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Recap: 2020
I began last year by interviewing Lord Conrad Black live on stage, alongside Peter Brown, the founder of Canaccord Genuity, Canada’s largest independent bank.
Then my event business went through a colossal pivot, my wife and I had a third little boy, and everyone in my house got Coronavirus.
My Youtube channel surpassed the 100,000 subscriber milestone, and I had my biggest win in the market - ever, on the back of a plant-based baby food company.
Truthfully, I had an amazing year.
But, the Million Dollar Question: How are we going to up the ante in 2021?
My Next Guest, Needs No Introduction
I wanted to start 2021 right. So in two weeks, at the 2021 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC) on our Youtube Channel, I am going big.
I have been hunting this guest for a while - and by a stroke of luck, I landed him.
The Headline Interview at the 2021 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference will be the 22nd Prime Minister of Canada, Stephen Harper.
Prime Minister Harper won three elections, leading the country for a decade as the head of the Conservative Party. He was the longest-serving Conservative Leader to hold this office since Canada’s founding Prime Minister passed away in 1891.
He was known for his no-nonsense leadership style, never pandering to the media.
Harper was pragmatic and straightforward. He focused on his job and did what he said he was going to do. I didn’t agree with all of his policies, but he led Canada through the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, maintaining a government that took the lowest share of tax revenue in proportion to GDP in 50 years.
He was confident, and incredibly pro-debate. He always encouraged his peers to challenge him openly on the floor.
In the words of Stockwell Day - during the Harper Government:
“If you were prepared, had the facts and could make the pragmatic case, you could win the day. You wouldn’t always have your way, but you always had your say.”
It doesn’t matter what side of the political spectrum you land on, sitting down with the leader of a G7 Nation will always be an extraordinarily interesting experience - especially, after the year we’ve had.
I can not wait to interview Prime Minister Harper. (and then, up the ante again... Dalio, or Musk?).
The Vancouver Resource Investment Conference will be streamed on our Youtube Channel on January 17, 18 & 19.
Who Else? (catch the wordplay?)
The rest of the 2021 VRIC agenda was built with one core ambition - to gauge sentiment. It’s the best line-up of guests we’ve ever had at a conference.
Gauging sentiment has become the reason I host the YouTube channel. By sitting down with brilliant macro investors on a weekly basis - I get to hear where they have reached consensus, and where there is still room for debate.
For example:
Last year from April - June, every big money manager I interviewed, regardless of their background or area of focus, had reached consensus on an idea (except Peter Schiff) - What was that idea? That some of their money should be in Bitcoin. A “non-zero position”, to quote Lyn Alden.
Their reasons were different, some arguing it was a safe haven asset, other’s determining it to be the future of currency and many just seeing speculation.
I didn’t lose sleep over their analysis, I saw the trend of big money moving. That’s the sentiment wave I am looking for. In response, I built positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few of the publicly traded companies that are leveraged to crypto currency prices - mainly Hive Blockchain (Frank Holmes) and Galaxy Digital (Mike Novogratz).
This trade paid off incredibly well. But I’ve found myself reminiscing about our technology conferences back in September 2017 - January 2018. Back then, Bitcoin was running to record highs, and masses of people were showing up at my events looking for any crypto related deal flow.
We know what happened next. BTC fell 60% in a month, and took three years to claw back lost ground.
I am not here to debate the fundamentals or utility of crypto currencies - whether you see an asset, a currency, a speculation (or maybe you have flat out dismissed them), I know what I see.
Profits.
All of that smart money that moved into the BTC market over the last year - is up 400%.
I don’t approach this philosophically - call me shallow. I ask a simple question: what do capitalists do when they are up 400% on an investment?
The good ones take profits.
It is my expectation that the “good ones” that made headlines for moving into the space - Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Raoul Pal… when they exit, it will be quietly, through the back door.
Their position will be purchased by unassuming, newly minted bandwagon fans, who will be left holding the bag.
The Bitcoin party is in full swing, and lots of people are still showing up. BUT - it’s getting late. Personally, I like to leave the party before things get out of control. I’m feeling great, I’ll tell a joke, give some high fives and I am out the door by midnight, riding a high.
Unfortunately, there is always someone who gets pushed out the door at 5am, wondering where everybody went.
I am not saying that BTC won’t hit the all time highs that we’ve seen forecasted - $100K, $500K and higher, eventually. But I believe it is going to happen in cycles.
Interesting data point: Coinbase is one of the worlds largest crypto currency exchanges. The average amount of time BTC is held in their users' accounts? 87 days.
I have taken profits in my capital markets positions. When it comes to the coins, I am not selling, but I stopped buying a couple of months ago. I have parked my BTC like I park my gold. I don’t trade it. I want a horse in the race, but I am not willing to lose sleep over it.
But That Was 2020, What About 2021?
I only manage my own money, and I come to my investment thesis through conversation. It is fortuitous that I get to stress test my ideas with veterans who have seen and experienced more than I have.
But once again, I am seeing consensus among my show guests for another industry:
Commodities.
Everyone I am talking to, regardless of their background, and regardless of their approach, is giving me bullish sentiment on the commodities sector. Some point to inflation and currency debasement, others point to infrastructure builds and the energy revolution. Some are buying the direct asset - silver and gold, others, oil and gold contracts, still more, ETFs and stocks.
As I said, the details of “why” and “how” differ. But the outcome is the same. The big money is moving into commodities. This is the avalanche I want to be in front of. This alone is reason for me to host the VRIC.
I almost didn’t build the VRIC this year. Our Youtube Channel is rocking, my investment portfolio has grown, and I am finally at a place where managing my own money, full time, is enough to sustain my family of five.
This has always been the core ambition.
My personal BHAG - (Big Hairy Audacious Goal), was to get to a place where I all had to do was read, learn and manage my portfolio. That - is the life of my dreams.
I did not think that 2020 would be the year that put me there. C'est la vie.
This year has been a rollercoaster. My core business was eviscerated overnight back in March 2020 (full shutdown on live events) a healthy psychological crisis followed ;) , and somehow I got spat back out on top. After it all, I’ve become far less willing to do anything that doesn’t serve my core purpose: Health, Wealth and Knowledge.
Time has become more precious. No more time for idiots, or things I don’t want to do.
But, after reflecting on what the VRIC could do for me - my deal flow and my perspective, I knew I had to do it.
Because once again - I see the opportunity to position my portfolio in front of an avalanche.
2020 changed the focus of my life to, “Less, but Better”.
If I have the capital to build meaningful positions in four copper companies, I want the four absolute best. I am not willing to compromise. The same for silver, uranium, lithium, nickel and gold.
To think you can’t find the diamonds in the rough, because you are not an insider, is short selling yourself. I am finding the diamonds in the rough, and I do it live on my channel.
So on January 17/18/19, 2021, streamed on our Youtube Channel, I will sit down one on one with 25 of the top investors I have come across, and they will share how they are allocating capital in 2021.
I will also be chatting with 50 hand picked junior and senior resource companies.
Historically, at the physical VRIC event, we would showcase over 500 companies in the trade show. I got a lot of heat this year for only allowing 50 companies in.
If you have been an exhibitor at the VRIC in years past and I didn’t give you a call, I apologize, it was a tough decision. Call me anytime to chat.
Uranium, Welcome to the Team
Last month a very young subscriber emailed me, pitching me on why I needed to host a Uranium Summit on the Youtube Channel right away. I told him to sell me on the idea. He responded with a three page essay, identifying four arguments for bulls, and one argument for bears. It was very compelling. So I hired him.
Welcome to the Team, Miles.
He will be the youngest speaker we’ve ever had, and will be contributing to the Uranium Feature at the VRIC.
This week I will be announcing the full line up of speakers at the 2021 VRIC.
If you read this letter, and watch my YouTube channel, it is likely that you agree with my bullish sentiment on commodities. So, after consideration, I decided to find a handful of high profile investors that disagree.
In the lineup this year you will see many precious metals bulls. You will also see some life-long gold investors who have recently abandoned the trade - for reasons they will explain.
It is flattering to have guests on the show who support us in our assumptions, and state, “Yes, you are right.”
It is far more valuable to have guests on the show who say, - “Here is why you might be wrong...”
I’ve worked hard to find a population from both camps.
Watch the event trailer and subscribe for updates HERE
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